A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
